TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Monett | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 29.8 | 28.5 |
| PA / GAME | 32.9 | 24.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -8.8 | +5.3 |
| SOS | +8.8 | +3.9 |
| POWER | -5.7 | +6.7 |
NEVADA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Nevada finished the job, as Monett and Nevada finished 26-32. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 26-32 final.
The actual margin was 6 points versus MOFO's 5.9-point projection. That produced a 0.1-point margin error, with score errors of 0.0 for Monett and 0.1 for Nevada.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NEVADA
MOFO leans toward Nevada because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.9-point margin, with Nevada carrying a 69% win probability.
Monett actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Nevada also allows 8.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.9 for Nevada and +8.8 for Monett. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Monett owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Monett has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.