TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Aurora | Mt. Vernon |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 17.6 | 25.5 |
| PA / GAME | 37.5 | 27.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -31.9 | -3.2 |
| SOS | +18.8 | -0.7 |
| POWER | -25.3 | -3.5 |
MT. VERNON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Mt. Vernon finished the job, as Aurora and Mt. Vernon finished 0-26. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 20-34 final.
The actual margin was 26 points versus MOFO's 13.1-point projection. That produced a 12.9-point margin error, with score errors of 20.5 for Aurora and 7.5 for Mt. Vernon.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MT. VERNON
MOFO leans toward Mt. Vernon because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 21.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 13.1-point margin, with Mt. Vernon carrying a 85% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Mt. Vernon enters at 25.5 points per game compared with 17.6 for Aurora. Mt. Vernon also allows 10.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.7 for Mt. Vernon and +18.8 for Aurora. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Mt. Vernon owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Aurora has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 21.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.