TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Rolla | Mountain Home (Ark.) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 24.3 | 32.8 |
| PA / GAME | 35.4 | 25.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -23.3 | +15.0 |
| SOS | +1.4 | +2.9 |
| POWER | -22.8 | +16.0 |
MOUNTAIN HOME (ARK.) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Mountain Home (Ark.) finished the job, as Rolla and Mountain Home (Ark.) finished 21-44. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 20-38 final.
The actual margin was 23 points versus MOFO's 17.9-point projection. That produced a 5.1-point margin error, with score errors of 0.5 for Rolla and 5.6 for Mountain Home (Ark.).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MOUNTAIN HOME (ARK.)
MOFO leans toward Mountain Home (Ark.) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 38.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 17.9-point margin, with Mountain Home (Ark.) carrying a 92% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Mountain Home (Ark.) enters at 32.8 points per game compared with 24.3 for Rolla. Mountain Home (Ark.) also allows 10.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.9 for Mountain Home (Ark.) and +1.4 for Rolla. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Mountain Home (Ark.) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Mountain Home (Ark.) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 38.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.