TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Mexico | Monroe City |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 22.9 | 30.6 |
| PA / GAME | 25.7 | 18.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -6.1 | +12.9 |
| SOS | +3.8 | +2.4 |
| POWER | -4.7 | +13.8 |
MEXICO WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Mexico finished the job, as Mexico and Monroe City finished 26-6. MOFO's pick of Monroe City missed; the model had projected a 19-30 final.
The actual margin was 20 points versus MOFO's 11.4-point projection. That produced a 31.4-point margin error, with score errors of 7.2 for Mexico and 24.2 for Monroe City.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MONROE CITY
MOFO leans toward Monroe City because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 18.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 11.4-point margin, with Monroe City carrying a 82% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Monroe City enters at 30.6 points per game compared with 22.9 for Mexico. Monroe City also allows 7.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.4 for Monroe City and +3.8 for Mexico. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Monroe City owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Mexico has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 18.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.