TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lighthouse Sr. High | Moberly |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 20.5 | 35.4 |
| PA / GAME | 32.4 | 20.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -20.7 | +27.5 |
| SOS | +5.9 | -17.0 |
| POWER | -18.7 | +21.5 |
MOBERLY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Moberly finished the job, as Lighthouse Sr. High and Moberly finished 0-20. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 16-38 final.
The actual margin was 20 points versus MOFO's 21.5-point projection. That produced a 1.5-point margin error, with score errors of 16.4 for Lighthouse Sr. High and 17.9 for Moberly.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MOBERLY
MOFO leans toward Moberly because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 40.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 21.5-point margin, with Moberly carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Moberly enters at 35.4 points per game compared with 20.5 for Lighthouse Sr. High. Moberly also allows 12.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -17.0 for Moberly and +5.9 for Lighthouse Sr. High. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Moberly owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lighthouse Sr. High has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 40.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.