TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Diamond | Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 19.3 | 31.3 |
| PA / GAME | 38.2 | 18.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -30.5 | +11.0 |
| SOS | +9.7 | +2.3 |
| POWER | -27.1 | +11.8 |
MILLER WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Miller finished the job, as Diamond and Miller finished 0-38. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 15-39 final.
The actual margin was 38 points versus MOFO's 24.0-point projection. That produced a 14.0-point margin error, with score errors of 14.9 for Diamond and 0.9 for Miller.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MILLER
MOFO leans toward Miller because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 38.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 24.0-point margin, with Miller carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Miller enters at 31.3 points per game compared with 19.3 for Diamond. Miller also allows 19.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.3 for Miller and +9.7 for Diamond. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Miller owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Diamond has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 38.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.