TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lamar | McDonald County |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 30.5 | 28.1 |
| PA / GAME | 20.5 | 25.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +18.8 | +3.3 |
| SOS | -3.6 | -0.3 |
| POWER | +17.6 | +3.1 |
LAMAR WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lamar finished the job, as Lamar and McDonald County finished 42-14. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 30-23 final.
The actual margin was 28 points versus MOFO's 6.9-point projection. That produced a 21.1-point margin error, with score errors of 12.3 for Lamar and 8.7 for McDonald County.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LAMAR
MOFO leans toward Lamar because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 14.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.9-point margin, with Lamar carrying a 72% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Lamar enters at 30.5 points per game compared with 28.1 for McDonald County. Lamar also allows 5.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.6 for Lamar and -0.3 for McDonald County. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Lamar owns the stronger scoring profile.
02McDonald County has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 14.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.