TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Branson | Marshfield |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 30.3 | 29.1 |
| PA / GAME | 25.0 | 23.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +8.7 | +9.7 |
| SOS | -6.5 | -6.4 |
| POWER | +6.5 | +7.5 |
BRANSON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Branson finished the job, as Branson and Marshfield finished 42-21. MOFO's pick of Marshfield missed; the model had projected a 27-27 final.
The actual margin was 21 points versus MOFO's 0.4-point projection. That produced a 21.4-point margin error, with score errors of 15.2 for Branson and 6.2 for Marshfield.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MARSHFIELD
MOFO leans toward Marshfield because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.4-point margin, with Marshfield carrying a 51% win probability.
Branson actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Marshfield also allows 1.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -6.4 for Marshfield and -6.5 for Branson. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Branson owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Marshfield has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.