TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Richmond | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 31.0 | 28.4 |
| PA / GAME | 29.6 | 29.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -0.1 | -2.1 |
| SOS | +3.3 | +0.4 |
| POWER | +1.0 | -2.0 |
RICHMOND WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Richmond finished the job, as Richmond and Marshall finished 38-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 31-29 final.
The actual margin was 38 points versus MOFO's 2.2-point projection. That produced a 35.8-point margin error, with score errors of 7.2 for Richmond and 28.6 for Marshall.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD RICHMOND
MOFO leans toward Richmond because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.2-point margin, with Richmond carrying a 57% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Richmond enters at 31.0 points per game compared with 28.4 for Marshall. Richmond also allows 0.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.3 for Richmond and +0.4 for Marshall. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Richmond owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Richmond has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.