TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Carrollton | Lone Jack with Kingsville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 34.1 | 22.1 |
| PA / GAME | 18.0 | 29.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +27.9 | -10.5 |
| SOS | -17.0 | -2.0 |
| POWER | +21.9 | -11.2 |
CARROLLTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Carrollton finished the job, as Carrollton and Lone Jack with Kingsville finished 32-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 35-17 final.
The actual margin was 32 points versus MOFO's 18.6-point projection. That produced a 13.4-point margin error, with score errors of 3.3 for Carrollton and 16.7 for Lone Jack with Kingsville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CARROLLTON
MOFO leans toward Carrollton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 33.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 18.6-point margin, with Carrollton carrying a 92% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Carrollton enters at 34.1 points per game compared with 22.1 for Lone Jack with Kingsville. Carrollton also allows 11.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -17.0 for Carrollton and -2.0 for Lone Jack with Kingsville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Carrollton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lone Jack with Kingsville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 33.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.