TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Carl Junction | Logan-Rogersville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 31.3 | 38.3 |
| PA / GAME | 23.3 | 18.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +13.6 | +28.5 |
| SOS | -1.4 | -4.7 |
| POWER | +13.1 | +26.8 |
LOGAN-ROGERSVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Logan-Rogersville finished the job, as Carl Junction and Logan-Rogersville finished 19-35. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-32 final.
The actual margin was 16 points versus MOFO's 8.6-point projection. That produced a 7.4-point margin error, with score errors of 4.6 for Carl Junction and 2.8 for Logan-Rogersville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LOGAN-ROGERSVILLE
MOFO leans toward Logan-Rogersville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 13.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 8.6-point margin, with Logan-Rogersville carrying a 76% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Logan-Rogersville enters at 38.3 points per game compared with 31.3 for Carl Junction. Logan-Rogersville also allows 4.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.7 for Logan-Rogersville and -1.4 for Carl Junction. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Logan-Rogersville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Carl Junction has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 13.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.