TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lutheran North | Lincoln-Way Central (IL) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 27.0 | 27.5 |
| PA / GAME | 33.5 | 27.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -13.0 | +0.0 |
| SOS | +2.8 | +0.0 |
| POWER | -12.0 | +0.0 |
LINCOLN-WAY CENTRAL (IL) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lincoln-Way Central (IL) finished the job, as Lutheran North and Lincoln-Way Central (IL) finished 13-21. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 26-32 final.
The actual margin was 8 points versus MOFO's 5.8-point projection. That produced a 2.2-point margin error, with score errors of 13.0 for Lutheran North and 10.8 for Lincoln-Way Central (IL).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LINCOLN-WAY CENTRAL (IL)
MOFO leans toward Lincoln-Way Central (IL) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.8-point margin, with Lincoln-Way Central (IL) carrying a 68% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Lincoln-Way Central (IL) enters at 27.5 points per game compared with 27.0 for Lutheran North. Lincoln-Way Central (IL) also allows 6.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.0 for Lincoln-Way Central (IL) and +2.8 for Lutheran North. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low — no season data.
01Lincoln-Way Central (IL) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lutheran North has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.