TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Thayer | Liberty (Mountain View) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 29.1 | 30.7 |
| PA / GAME | 27.4 | 17.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -2.3 | +20.0 |
| SOS | +4.4 | -3.8 |
| POWER | -0.7 | +18.6 |
LIBERTY (MOUNTAIN VIEW) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Liberty (Mountain View) finished the job, as Thayer and Liberty (Mountain View) finished 26-28. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 22-31 final.
The actual margin was 2 points versus MOFO's 9.5-point projection. That produced a 7.5-point margin error, with score errors of 4.5 for Thayer and 3.0 for Liberty (Mountain View).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LIBERTY (MOUNTAIN VIEW)
MOFO leans toward Liberty (Mountain View) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 19.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.5-point margin, with Liberty (Mountain View) carrying a 78% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Liberty (Mountain View) enters at 30.7 points per game compared with 29.1 for Thayer. Liberty (Mountain View) also allows 9.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.8 for Liberty (Mountain View) and +4.4 for Thayer. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Liberty (Mountain View) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Thayer has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 19.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.