TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Central (St. Joseph) | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 28.4 | 25.9 |
| PA / GAME | 25.2 | 32.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +5.6 | -18.3 |
| SOS | -1.4 | +11.4 |
| POWER | +5.1 | -14.4 |
CENTRAL (ST. JOSEPH) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Central (St. Joseph) finished the job, as Central (St. Joseph) and Liberty finished 35-31. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 32-24 final.
The actual margin was 4 points versus MOFO's 8.7-point projection. That produced a 4.7-point margin error, with score errors of 2.7 for Central (St. Joseph) and 7.3 for Liberty.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CENTRAL (ST. JOSEPH)
MOFO leans toward Central (St. Joseph) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 19.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 8.7-point margin, with Central (St. Joseph) carrying a 76% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Central (St. Joseph) enters at 28.4 points per game compared with 25.9 for Liberty. Central (St. Joseph) also allows 7.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.4 for Central (St. Joseph) and +11.4 for Liberty. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Central (St. Joseph) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Liberty has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 19.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.