TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Drexel | Liberal |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 24.4 | 32.0 |
| PA / GAME | 31.9 | 33.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | -13.1 | -0.7 |
| SOS | -3.3 | -4.9 |
| POWER | -14.2 | -2.4 |
DREXEL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Drexel finished the job, as Drexel and Liberal finished 52-12. MOFO's pick of Liberal missed; the model had projected a 27-33 final.
The actual margin was 40 points versus MOFO's 5.7-point projection. That produced a 45.7-point margin error, with score errors of 24.5 for Drexel and 21.2 for Liberal.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LIBERAL
MOFO leans toward Liberal because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.7-point margin, with Liberal carrying a 68% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Liberal enters at 32.0 points per game compared with 24.4 for Drexel. Drexel's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.9 for Liberal and -3.3 for Drexel. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Liberal owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Drexel has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.