TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Joplin | Lebanon |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 25.1 | 21.1 |
| PA / GAME | 24.4 | 34.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | +0.7 | -25.9 |
| SOS | +1.4 | +9.8 |
| POWER | +1.1 | -22.4 |
LEBANON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lebanon finished the job, as Joplin and Lebanon finished 32-34. MOFO's pick of Joplin missed; the model had projected a 32-20 final.
The actual margin was 2 points versus MOFO's 11.7-point projection. That produced a 13.7-point margin error, with score errors of 0.0 for Joplin and 13.7 for Lebanon.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD JOPLIN
MOFO leans toward Joplin because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 23.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 11.7-point margin, with Joplin carrying a 83% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Joplin enters at 25.1 points per game compared with 21.1 for Lebanon. Joplin also allows 9.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +1.4 for Joplin and +9.8 for Lebanon. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Joplin owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lebanon has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 23.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.