TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lawson | Lathrop |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 30.3 | 31.4 |
| PA / GAME | 26.1 | 16.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +6.0 | +16.7 |
| SOS | -7.9 | -10.9 |
| POWER | +3.2 | +12.9 |
LATHROP WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lathrop finished the job, as Lawson and Lathrop finished 13-30. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 23-30 final.
The actual margin was 17 points versus MOFO's 7.2-point projection. That produced a 9.8-point margin error, with score errors of 9.5 for Lawson and 0.2 for Lathrop.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LATHROP
MOFO leans toward Lathrop because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.2-point margin, with Lathrop carrying a 72% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Lathrop enters at 31.4 points per game compared with 30.3 for Lawson. Lathrop also allows 9.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -10.9 for Lathrop and -7.9 for Lawson. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Lathrop owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lawson has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.