TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Pattonville | Lafayette (Wildwood) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 32.1 | 30.9 |
| PA / GAME | 19.9 | 22.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +21.1 | +9.8 |
| SOS | -10.9 | +0.7 |
| POWER | +17.2 | +10.1 |
PATTONVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Pattonville finished the job, as Pattonville and Lafayette (Wildwood) finished 26-21. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-25 final.
The actual margin was 5 points versus MOFO's 3.1-point projection. That produced a 1.9-point margin error, with score errors of 1.9 for Pattonville and 3.8 for Lafayette (Wildwood).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PATTONVILLE
MOFO leans toward Pattonville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.1-point margin, with Pattonville carrying a 60% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Pattonville enters at 32.1 points per game compared with 30.9 for Lafayette (Wildwood). Pattonville also allows 2.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -10.9 for Pattonville and +0.7 for Lafayette (Wildwood). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Pattonville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lafayette (Wildwood) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.