TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Hazelwood East | Kirkwood |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 20.0 | 39.1 |
| PA / GAME | 23.3 | 23.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -10.3 | +25.7 |
| SOS | +4.2 | +3.1 |
| POWER | -8.8 | +26.7 |
KIRKWOOD WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Kirkwood finished the job, as Hazelwood East and Kirkwood finished 15-45. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 18-35 final.
The actual margin was 30 points versus MOFO's 17.3-point projection. That produced a 12.7-point margin error, with score errors of 2.7 for Hazelwood East and 9.9 for Kirkwood.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD KIRKWOOD
MOFO leans toward Kirkwood because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 35.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 17.3-point margin, with Kirkwood carrying a 91% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Kirkwood enters at 39.1 points per game compared with 20.0 for Hazelwood East. Hazelwood East's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.1 for Kirkwood and +4.2 for Hazelwood East. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Kirkwood owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hazelwood East has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 35.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.