TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Orrick | Keytesville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 30.4 | 20.9 |
| PA / GAME | 32.3 | 40.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -1.6 | -23.1 |
| SOS | -6.4 | +4.7 |
| POWER | -3.8 | -21.5 |
ORRICK WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Orrick finished the job, as Orrick and Keytesville finished 34-6. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 37-25 final.
The actual margin was 28 points versus MOFO's 12.3-point projection. That produced a 15.7-point margin error, with score errors of 3.2 for Orrick and 18.9 for Keytesville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ORRICK
MOFO leans toward Orrick because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 17.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 12.3-point margin, with Orrick carrying a 84% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Orrick enters at 30.4 points per game compared with 20.9 for Keytesville. Orrick also allows 8.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -6.4 for Orrick and +4.7 for Keytesville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Orrick owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Keytesville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 17.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.