TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Dexter | Kennett |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 23.1 | 27.9 |
| PA / GAME | 24.0 | 29.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -7.5 | -1.5 |
| SOS | +2.3 | +8.0 |
| POWER | -6.7 | +1.3 |
KENNETT WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Kennett finished the job, as Dexter and Kennett finished 31-35. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-27 final.
The actual margin was 4 points versus MOFO's 1.6-point projection. That produced a 2.4-point margin error, with score errors of 5.7 for Dexter and 8.1 for Kennett.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD KENNETT
MOFO leans toward Kennett because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.6-point margin, with Kennett carrying a 55% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Kennett enters at 27.9 points per game compared with 23.1 for Dexter. Dexter's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +8.0 for Kennett and +2.3 for Dexter. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Kennett owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Kennett has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.