TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Central (New Madrid County) | Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 22.1 | 25.7 |
| PA / GAME | 33.3 | 24.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -19.2 | +3.5 |
| SOS | +0.0 | -13.4 |
| POWER | -19.2 | -1.2 |
KELLY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Kelly finished the job, as Central (New Madrid County) and Kelly finished 26-58. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 22-31 final.
The actual margin was 32 points versus MOFO's 9.6-point projection. That produced a 22.4-point margin error, with score errors of 4.4 for Central (New Madrid County) and 26.7 for Kelly.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD KELLY
MOFO leans toward Kelly because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 18.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.6-point margin, with Kelly carrying a 78% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Kelly enters at 25.7 points per game compared with 22.1 for Central (New Madrid County). Kelly also allows 8.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -13.4 for Kelly and +0.0 for Central (New Madrid County). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Kelly owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Central (New Madrid County) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 18.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.