TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Mehlville | Jennings |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 19.3 | 22.3 |
| PA / GAME | 39.6 | 23.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -28.7 | -9.4 |
| SOS | +2.5 | -6.1 |
| POWER | -27.8 | -11.5 |
JENNINGS WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Jennings finished the job, as Mehlville and Jennings finished 21-44. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 20-33 final.
The actual margin was 23 points versus MOFO's 12.8-point projection. That produced a 10.2-point margin error, with score errors of 1.2 for Mehlville and 11.4 for Jennings.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD JENNINGS
MOFO leans toward Jennings because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 16.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 12.8-point margin, with Jennings carrying a 85% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Jennings enters at 22.3 points per game compared with 19.3 for Mehlville. Jennings also allows 16.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -6.1 for Jennings and +2.5 for Mehlville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Jennings owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Mehlville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 16.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.