TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Midway | Jasper |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 35.8 | 21.1 |
| PA / GAME | 20.4 | 37.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +25.9 | -22.1 |
| SOS | -8.7 | -0.7 |
| POWER | +22.9 | -22.3 |
MIDWAY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Midway finished the job, as Midway and Jasper finished 56-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 41-16 final.
The actual margin was 56 points versus MOFO's 25.3-point projection. That produced a 30.7-point margin error, with score errors of 14.8 for Midway and 15.9 for Jasper.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MIDWAY
MOFO leans toward Midway because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 45.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 25.3-point margin, with Midway carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Midway enters at 35.8 points per game compared with 21.1 for Jasper. Midway also allows 16.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -8.7 for Midway and -0.7 for Jasper. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Midway owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Jasper has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 45.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.