TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Adrian | Holden |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 23.8 | 20.9 |
| PA / GAME | 24.4 | 35.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -3.8 | -23.8 |
| SOS | -7.9 | +17.9 |
| POWER | -6.5 | -17.6 |
HOLDEN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Holden finished the job, as Adrian and Holden finished 18-26. MOFO's pick of Adrian missed; the model had projected a 31-22 final.
The actual margin was 8 points versus MOFO's 8.7-point projection. That produced a 16.7-point margin error, with score errors of 12.6 for Adrian and 4.1 for Holden.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ADRIAN
MOFO leans toward Adrian because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 8.7-point margin, with Adrian carrying a 76% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Adrian enters at 23.8 points per game compared with 20.9 for Holden. Adrian also allows 11.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -7.9 for Adrian and +17.9 for Holden. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Adrian owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Holden has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.