TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Holt | Hillsboro |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 32.0 | 30.8 |
| PA / GAME | 28.7 | 17.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +5.4 | +23.5 |
| SOS | +1.1 | -4.3 |
| POWER | +5.8 | +22.0 |
HILLSBORO WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Hillsboro finished the job, as Holt and Hillsboro finished 33-62. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 23-31 final.
The actual margin was 29 points versus MOFO's 8.2-point projection. That produced a 20.8-point margin error, with score errors of 9.7 for Holt and 30.6 for Hillsboro.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HILLSBORO
MOFO leans toward Hillsboro because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 16.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 8.2-point margin, with Hillsboro carrying a 75% win probability.
Holt actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Hillsboro also allows 10.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.3 for Hillsboro and +1.1 for Holt. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Holt owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Holt has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 16.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.