TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Parkview | Hillcrest |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 18.4 | 18.9 |
| PA / GAME | 20.8 | 36.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -3.0 | -29.8 |
| SOS | -9.4 | +9.8 |
| POWER | -6.3 | -26.4 |
HILLCREST WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Hillcrest finished the job, as Parkview and Hillcrest finished 12-41. MOFO's pick of Parkview missed; the model had projected a 29-18 final.
The actual margin was 29 points versus MOFO's 11.2-point projection. That produced a 40.2-point margin error, with score errors of 17.2 for Parkview and 23.0 for Hillcrest.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PARKVIEW
MOFO leans toward Parkview because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 20.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 11.2-point margin, with Parkview carrying a 82% win probability.
Hillcrest actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Parkview also allows 15.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -9.4 for Parkview and +9.8 for Hillcrest. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Hillcrest owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hillcrest has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 20.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.