TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Jefferson (Festus) | Herculaneum |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 22.4 | 26.5 |
| PA / GAME | 29.2 | 22.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -15.1 | +4.9 |
| SOS | +3.7 | -3.9 |
| POWER | -13.8 | +3.6 |
JEFFERSON (FESTUS) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Jefferson (Festus) finished the job, as Jefferson (Festus) and Herculaneum finished 30-14. MOFO's pick of Herculaneum missed; the model had projected a 21-30 final.
The actual margin was 16 points versus MOFO's 9.1-point projection. That produced a 25.1-point margin error, with score errors of 9.5 for Jefferson (Festus) and 15.7 for Herculaneum.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HERCULANEUM
MOFO leans toward Herculaneum because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 17.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.1-point margin, with Herculaneum carrying a 77% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Herculaneum enters at 26.5 points per game compared with 22.4 for Jefferson (Festus). Herculaneum also allows 7.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.9 for Herculaneum and +3.7 for Jefferson (Festus). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Herculaneum owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Jefferson (Festus) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 17.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.