TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Rockwood Summit | Hazelwood Central |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 25.5 | 15.1 |
| PA / GAME | 29.6 | 30.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -9.8 | -24.1 |
| SOS | +9.7 | +2.6 |
| POWER | -6.4 | -23.2 |
ROCKWOOD SUMMIT WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Rockwood Summit finished the job, as Rockwood Summit and Hazelwood Central finished 63-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 30-20 final.
The actual margin was 63 points versus MOFO's 9.5-point projection. That produced a 53.5-point margin error, with score errors of 33.1 for Rockwood Summit and 20.3 for Hazelwood Central.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ROCKWOOD SUMMIT
MOFO leans toward Rockwood Summit because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 16.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.5-point margin, with Rockwood Summit carrying a 78% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Rockwood Summit enters at 25.5 points per game compared with 15.1 for Hazelwood Central. Rockwood Summit also allows 0.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +9.7 for Rockwood Summit and +2.6 for Hazelwood Central. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Rockwood Summit owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Rockwood Summit has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 16.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.