TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Santa Fe | Hardin-Central |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 38.3 | 43.2 |
| PA / GAME | 28.4 | 30.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +18.5 | +20.0 |
| SOS | -12.1 | +3.4 |
| POWER | +14.3 | +21.2 |
HARDIN-CENTRAL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Hardin-Central finished the job, as Santa Fe and Hardin-Central finished 27-64. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 34-37 final.
The actual margin was 37 points versus MOFO's 3.3-point projection. That produced a 33.7-point margin error, with score errors of 6.5 for Santa Fe and 27.2 for Hardin-Central.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HARDIN-CENTRAL
MOFO leans toward Hardin-Central because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.3-point margin, with Hardin-Central carrying a 61% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Hardin-Central enters at 43.2 points per game compared with 38.3 for Santa Fe. Santa Fe's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.4 for Hardin-Central and -12.1 for Santa Fe. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Hardin-Central owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hardin-Central has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.