TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Willard | Glendale |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 24.0 | 23.4 |
| PA / GAME | 34.1 | 34.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -14.4 | -22.5 |
| SOS | -5.8 | +18.0 |
| POWER | -16.5 | -16.2 |
GLENDALE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Glendale finished the job, as Willard and Glendale finished 14-69. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-29 final.
The actual margin was 55 points versus MOFO's 0.3-point projection. That produced a 54.7-point margin error, with score errors of 14.9 for Willard and 39.8 for Glendale.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD GLENDALE
MOFO leans toward Glendale because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 0.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.3-point margin, with Glendale carrying a 51% win probability.
Willard actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Willard's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +18.0 for Glendale and -5.8 for Willard. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Willard owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Glendale has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 0.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.