TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Osage | Fulton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 23.0 | 19.2 |
| PA / GAME | 34.0 | 31.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -24.5 | -18.9 |
| SOS | +16.0 | +6.7 |
| POWER | -18.9 | -16.6 |
OSAGE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Osage finished the job, as Osage and Fulton finished 30-7. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 27-27 final.
The actual margin was 23 points versus MOFO's 0.5-point projection. That produced a 22.5-point margin error, with score errors of 2.8 for Osage and 19.7 for Fulton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD OSAGE
MOFO leans toward Osage because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 2.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.5-point margin, with Osage carrying a 52% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Osage enters at 23.0 points per game compared with 19.2 for Fulton. Fulton's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +16.0 for Osage and +6.7 for Fulton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Osage owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Osage has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 2.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.