TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Ft. Zumwalt North | Ft. Zumwalt West |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 24.4 | 26.0 |
| PA / GAME | 30.0 | 30.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -15.7 | -9.3 |
| SOS | +12.6 | +3.3 |
| POWER | -11.3 | -8.1 |
FT. ZUMWALT NORTH WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Ft. Zumwalt North finished the job, as Ft. Zumwalt North and Ft. Zumwalt West finished 33-26. MOFO's pick of Ft. Zumwalt West missed; the model had projected a 27-28 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 1.1-point projection. That produced a 8.1-point margin error, with score errors of 5.9 for Ft. Zumwalt North and 2.2 for Ft. Zumwalt West.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FT. ZUMWALT WEST
MOFO leans toward Ft. Zumwalt West because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.1-point margin, with Ft. Zumwalt West carrying a 54% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Ft. Zumwalt West enters at 26.0 points per game compared with 24.4 for Ft. Zumwalt North. Ft. Zumwalt North's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.3 for Ft. Zumwalt West and +12.6 for Ft. Zumwalt North. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Ft. Zumwalt West owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Ft. Zumwalt North has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.