FRANCIS HOWELL CENTRAL WRITES THE FINAL WORD

Francis Howell Central finished the job, as Francis Howell Central and Ft. Zumwalt South finished 17-7. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-22 final.

The actual margin was 10 points versus MOFO's 5.8-point projection. That produced a 4.2-point margin error, with score errors of 11.0 for Francis Howell Central and 15.2 for Ft. Zumwalt South.

THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FRANCIS HOWELL CENTRAL

MOFO leans toward Francis Howell Central because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.8-point margin, with Francis Howell Central carrying a 68% win probability.

The clearest separator is scoring: Francis Howell Central enters at 22.5 points per game compared with 22.2 for Ft. Zumwalt South. Francis Howell Central also allows 6.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.

Strength of schedule checks in at -2.0 for Francis Howell Central and +6.0 for Ft. Zumwalt South. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.