TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Orchard Farm | Ft. Zumwalt East |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 33.0 | 29.6 |
| PA / GAME | 21.3 | 27.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +16.9 | +2.5 |
| SOS | -14.3 | -1.1 |
| POWER | +11.9 | +2.2 |
FT. ZUMWALT EAST WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Ft. Zumwalt East finished the job, as Orchard Farm and Ft. Zumwalt East finished 28-33. MOFO's pick of Orchard Farm missed; the model had projected a 31-25 final.
The actual margin was 5 points versus MOFO's 6.7-point projection. That produced a 11.7-point margin error, with score errors of 3.3 for Orchard Farm and 8.4 for Ft. Zumwalt East.
FT. ZUMWALT EAST'S UNDERDOG PATH
Ft. Zumwalt East, the underdog, faces a Class 5 opponent in Orchard Farm, where the favorite, Orchard Farm, holds a 11.9 power gap. Despite a 2-0 record, the underdog's 1-1 record and 29.6 passing efficiency suggest a plausible path. The home field application is neutral, but the projected margin of 6.7 favors the favorite. Sample-size confidence is low, yet the underdog's 27.9 passing attack and 29.6 passing efficiency offer a fighting chance. The game is a tight battle, with Orchard Farm's 21.3 passing attack and 33.0 passing efficiency giving them a slight edge.
conclusion_summary":
01Orchard Farm owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Ft. Zumwalt East has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.