TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Charles West | Francis Howell North |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 32.9 | 13.8 |
| PA / GAME | 24.3 | 36.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +14.2 | -25.8 |
| SOS | -9.3 | +6.1 |
| POWER | +11.0 | -23.7 |
ST. CHARLES WEST WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Charles West finished the job, as St. Charles West and Francis Howell North finished 42-2. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 38-16 final.
The actual margin was 40 points versus MOFO's 22.6-point projection. That produced a 17.4-point margin error, with score errors of 3.9 for St. Charles West and 13.5 for Francis Howell North.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. CHARLES WEST
MOFO leans toward St. Charles West because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 34.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 22.6-point margin, with St. Charles West carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. Charles West enters at 32.9 points per game compared with 13.8 for Francis Howell North. St. Charles West also allows 11.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -9.3 for St. Charles West and +6.1 for Francis Howell North. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01St. Charles West owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Francis Howell North has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 34.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.