TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Hazelwood West | Fox |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 17.4 | 26.8 |
| PA / GAME | 29.5 | 26.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -15.3 | +1.6 |
| SOS | +1.5 | -4.0 |
| POWER | -14.8 | +0.2 |
FOX WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Fox finished the job, as Hazelwood West and Fox finished 20-49. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 21-30 final.
The actual margin was 29 points versus MOFO's 9.2-point projection. That produced a 19.8-point margin error, with score errors of 0.5 for Hazelwood West and 19.3 for Fox.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FOX
MOFO leans toward Fox because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 15.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.2-point margin, with Fox carrying a 77% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Fox enters at 26.8 points per game compared with 17.4 for Hazelwood West. Fox also allows 2.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.0 for Fox and +1.5 for Hazelwood West. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Fox owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hazelwood West has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 15.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.