TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Grain Valley | Fort Osage |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 31.4 | 28.6 |
| PA / GAME | 27.9 | 29.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +3.4 | -4.1 |
| SOS | +2.2 | +2.1 |
| POWER | +4.2 | -3.4 |
GRAIN VALLEY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Grain Valley finished the job, as Grain Valley and Fort Osage finished 20-15. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 31-27 final.
The actual margin was 5 points versus MOFO's 3.9-point projection. That produced a 1.1-point margin error, with score errors of 11.3 for Grain Valley and 12.4 for Fort Osage.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD GRAIN VALLEY
MOFO leans toward Grain Valley because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.9-point margin, with Grain Valley carrying a 63% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Grain Valley enters at 31.4 points per game compared with 28.6 for Fort Osage. Grain Valley also allows 1.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.2 for Grain Valley and +2.1 for Fort Osage. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Grain Valley owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Grain Valley has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.