TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Central (Cape Girardeau) | Farmington |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 23.0 | 39.7 |
| PA / GAME | 19.6 | 17.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +6.1 | +30.8 |
| SOS | +3.2 | -8.7 |
| POWER | +7.2 | +27.7 |
FARMINGTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Farmington finished the job, as Central (Cape Girardeau) and Farmington finished 2-42. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 18-32 final.
The actual margin was 40 points versus MOFO's 13.7-point projection. That produced a 26.3-point margin error, with score errors of 16.0 for Central (Cape Girardeau) and 10.3 for Farmington.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FARMINGTON
MOFO leans toward Farmington because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 20.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 13.7-point margin, with Farmington carrying a 86% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Farmington enters at 39.7 points per game compared with 23.0 for Central (Cape Girardeau). Farmington also allows 2.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -8.7 for Farmington and +3.2 for Central (Cape Girardeau). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Farmington owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Central (Cape Girardeau) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 20.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.