TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Charles | Duchesne |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 17.0 | 17.4 |
| PA / GAME | 33.9 | 36.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -29.6 | -31.9 |
| SOS | +9.0 | -1.7 |
| POWER | -26.5 | -32.5 |
ST. CHARLES WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Charles finished the job, as St. Charles and Duchesne finished 34-12. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-25 final.
The actual margin was 22 points versus MOFO's 3.0-point projection. That produced a 19.0-point margin error, with score errors of 6.2 for St. Charles and 12.8 for Duchesne.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. CHARLES
MOFO leans toward St. Charles because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.0-point margin, with St. Charles carrying a 60% win probability.
Duchesne actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. St. Charles also allows 3.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +9.0 for St. Charles and -1.7 for Duchesne. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Duchesne owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Charles has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.