TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lockwood | Dewar (OK) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 52.0 | 27.5 |
| PA / GAME | 31.6 | 27.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +28.3 | +0.0 |
| SOS | +2.5 | +0.0 |
| POWER | +29.2 | +0.0 |
LOCKWOOD WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lockwood finished the job, as Lockwood and Dewar (OK) finished 64-18. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 43-26 final.
The actual margin was 46 points versus MOFO's 16.7-point projection. That produced a 29.3-point margin error, with score errors of 21.0 for Lockwood and 8.3 for Dewar (OK).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LOCKWOOD
MOFO leans toward Lockwood because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 29.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 16.7-point margin, with Lockwood carrying a 90% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Lockwood enters at 52.0 points per game compared with 27.5 for Dewar (OK). Dewar (OK)'s defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.5 for Lockwood and +0.0 for Dewar (OK). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low — no season data.
01Lockwood owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lockwood has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 29.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.