TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | South Nodaway | DeKalb |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 35.5 | 16.6 |
| PA / GAME | 38.7 | 45.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -2.0 | -34.3 |
| SOS | -5.1 | +7.8 |
| POWER | -3.8 | -31.6 |
SOUTH NODAWAY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
South Nodaway finished the job, as South Nodaway and DeKalb finished 58-22. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 43-25 final.
The actual margin was 36 points versus MOFO's 18.4-point projection. That produced a 17.6-point margin error, with score errors of 14.8 for South Nodaway and 2.8 for DeKalb.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SOUTH NODAWAY
MOFO leans toward South Nodaway because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 27.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 18.4-point margin, with South Nodaway carrying a 92% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: South Nodaway enters at 35.5 points per game compared with 16.6 for DeKalb. South Nodaway also allows 6.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -5.1 for South Nodaway and +7.8 for DeKalb. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01South Nodaway owns the stronger scoring profile.
02DeKalb has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 27.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.