TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Christian Brothers College | De Smet Jesuit |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 31.1 | 32.5 |
| PA / GAME | 29.9 | 27.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -3.5 | +9.4 |
| SOS | +15.3 | +2.3 |
| POWER | +1.8 | +10.2 |
CHRISTIAN BROTHERS COLLEGE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Christian Brothers College finished the job, as Christian Brothers College and De Smet Jesuit finished 59-48. MOFO's pick of De Smet Jesuit missed; the model had projected a 29-32 final.
The actual margin was 11 points versus MOFO's 3.2-point projection. That produced a 14.2-point margin error, with score errors of 30.4 for Christian Brothers College and 16.1 for De Smet Jesuit.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD DE SMET JESUIT
MOFO leans toward De Smet Jesuit because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.2-point margin, with De Smet Jesuit carrying a 61% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: De Smet Jesuit enters at 32.5 points per game compared with 31.1 for Christian Brothers College. De Smet Jesuit also allows 2.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.3 for De Smet Jesuit and +15.3 for Christian Brothers College. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01De Smet Jesuit owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Christian Brothers College has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.