TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Bayless with Hancock | Crystal City |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 20.5 | 20.6 |
| PA / GAME | 23.5 | 33.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -3.1 | -24.0 |
| SOS | -4.4 | -2.4 |
| POWER | -4.7 | -24.8 |
BAYLESS WITH HANCOCK WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Bayless with Hancock finished the job, as Bayless with Hancock and Crystal City finished 41-8. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-20 final.
The actual margin was 33 points versus MOFO's 9.5-point projection. That produced a 23.5-point margin error, with score errors of 11.6 for Bayless with Hancock and 11.8 for Crystal City.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BAYLESS WITH HANCOCK
MOFO leans toward Bayless with Hancock because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 20.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.5-point margin, with Bayless with Hancock carrying a 78% win probability.
Crystal City actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Bayless with Hancock also allows 10.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.4 for Bayless with Hancock and -2.4 for Crystal City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Crystal City owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Crystal City has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 20.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.