TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Center | Clinton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 27.5 | 28.4 |
| PA / GAME | 24.5 | 26.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +11.0 | +1.8 |
| SOS | -15.9 | -2.5 |
| POWER | +5.4 | +0.9 |
CENTER WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Center finished the job, as Center and Clinton finished 35-12. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 27-26 final.
The actual margin was 23 points versus MOFO's 1.3-point projection. That produced a 21.7-point margin error, with score errors of 7.6 for Center and 14.2 for Clinton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CENTER
MOFO leans toward Center because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.3-point margin, with Center carrying a 54% win probability.
Clinton actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Center also allows 2.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -15.9 for Center and -2.5 for Clinton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Clinton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Clinton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 4.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.