TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | SLUH | Chaminade College Prep |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 28.2 | 33.0 |
| PA / GAME | 20.5 | 24.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +10.3 | +21.6 |
| SOS | -9.7 | -11.5 |
| POWER | +6.9 | +17.6 |
SLUH WRITES THE FINAL WORD
SLUH finished the job, as SLUH and Chaminade College Prep finished 13-7. MOFO's pick of Chaminade College Prep missed; the model had projected a 25-28 final.
The actual margin was 6 points versus MOFO's 2.8-point projection. That produced a 8.8-point margin error, with score errors of 12.1 for SLUH and 20.9 for Chaminade College Prep.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CHAMINADE COLLEGE PREP
MOFO leans toward Chaminade College Prep because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 10.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.8-point margin, with Chaminade College Prep carrying a 59% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Chaminade College Prep enters at 33.0 points per game compared with 28.2 for SLUH. SLUH's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -11.5 for Chaminade College Prep and -9.7 for SLUH. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Chaminade College Prep owns the stronger scoring profile.
02SLUH has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 10.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.