TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Seneca | Cassville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 31.0 | 35.5 |
| PA / GAME | 20.4 | 19.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +15.9 | +26.4 |
| SOS | +2.5 | -13.1 |
| POWER | +16.7 | +21.8 |
CASSVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Cassville finished the job, as Seneca and Cassville finished 25-28. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-28 final.
The actual margin was 3 points versus MOFO's 3.1-point projection. That produced a 0.1-point margin error, with score errors of 0.1 for Seneca and 0.2 for Cassville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CASSVILLE
MOFO leans toward Cassville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.1-point margin, with Cassville carrying a 60% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Cassville enters at 35.5 points per game compared with 31.0 for Seneca. Cassville also allows 0.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -13.1 for Cassville and +2.5 for Seneca. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Cassville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Seneca has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.