TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Hickman | Capital City |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 31.1 | 26.9 |
| PA / GAME | 24.6 | 24.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +8.5 | +1.7 |
| SOS | +1.7 | -0.4 |
| POWER | +9.1 | +1.5 |
HICKMAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Hickman finished the job, as Hickman and Capital City finished 15-14. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-25 final.
The actual margin was 1 points versus MOFO's 3.9-point projection. That produced a 2.9-point margin error, with score errors of 13.8 for Hickman and 10.9 for Capital City.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HICKMAN
MOFO leans toward Hickman because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.9-point margin, with Hickman carrying a 63% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Hickman enters at 31.1 points per game compared with 26.9 for Capital City. Hickman also allows 0.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +1.7 for Hickman and -0.4 for Capital City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Hickman owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hickman has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.