TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Smith-Cotton | Camdenton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 23.5 | 37.7 |
| PA / GAME | 28.9 | 33.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -9.0 | +11.0 |
| SOS | +4.5 | -4.4 |
| POWER | -7.4 | +9.5 |
CAMDENTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Camdenton finished the job, as Smith-Cotton and Camdenton finished 18-55. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 27-35 final.
The actual margin was 37 points versus MOFO's 8.1-point projection. That produced a 28.9-point margin error, with score errors of 8.9 for Smith-Cotton and 20.0 for Camdenton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CAMDENTON
MOFO leans toward Camdenton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 17.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 8.1-point margin, with Camdenton carrying a 75% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Camdenton enters at 37.7 points per game compared with 23.5 for Smith-Cotton. Smith-Cotton's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.4 for Camdenton and +4.5 for Smith-Cotton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Camdenton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Smith-Cotton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 17.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.