TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Hallsville | California |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 25.4 | 22.7 |
| PA / GAME | 31.5 | 28.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -8.9 | -6.7 |
| SOS | +9.3 | +12.0 |
| POWER | -5.7 | -2.5 |
HALLSVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Hallsville finished the job, as Hallsville and California finished 55-26. MOFO's pick of California missed; the model had projected a 27-28 final.
The actual margin was 29 points versus MOFO's 0.8-point projection. That produced a 29.8-point margin error, with score errors of 28.2 for Hallsville and 1.5 for California.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CALIFORNIA
MOFO leans toward California because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.8-point margin, with California carrying a 53% win probability.
Hallsville actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. California also allows 2.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +12.0 for California and +9.3 for Hallsville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Hallsville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02California has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.